Silicon metal prices continue to trend weak, with news of production resumptions at some polysilicon bases [SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM, May 26:

Silicon Metal

Prices

Last week, both silicon metal futures and spot prices continued to decline. The main contract fell below 8,000 yuan/mt, and oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China also dropped close to 8,500 yuan/mt. The record-low silicon prices spurred the release of some orders, but overall sentiment remained cautious.

Production

Based on supply-demand balance calculations, the Q1 balance is expected to show a surplus of approximately 45,000 mt. From April to May, both supply and demand were weak, and the supply-demand balance shifted towards slight destocking, but the magnitude was relatively small and had little impact on the supply-demand structure. In June, with the resumption of some production capacity on the supply side and an increase in supply, the balance may shift back towards inventory buildup.

Inventory

Social Inventory: SMM statistics show that the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 582,000 mt on May 22, a decrease of 17,000 mt WoW. Among this, social general warehouses held 130,000 mt, a decrease of 2,000 mt WoW, and social delivery warehouses held 452,000 mt (including unregistered warrants and spot portions), an increase of 15,000 mt WoW. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.)

Polysilicon

Prices

At the end of the week, the price of N-type recharging polysilicon was 35-38 yuan/kg, and the N-type polysilicon price index was 35.4 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices continued to decline last week, with weak purchase willingness from downstream enterprises. Some market low prices in order signing earlier this month dragged down market expectations.

Production

Currently, there are plans for two bases to resume production in June, and the number of enterprises with production cuts in the market is temporarily limited. There is an expectation of increased polysilicon supply.

Inventory

Currently, polysilicon inventory still faces significant pressure, remaining above 250,000 mt.

Module

Prices

In the current module market, the mainstream transaction price for N-type 182mm modules in centralized projects is 0.698-0.703 yuan/W, with a slight decrease in the average price. The mainstream transaction price for N-type 210mm modules is 0.713-0.718 yuan/W, also with a slight decrease in the average price. The price of TOPCon distributed 182mm modules is 0.687-0.69 yuan/W.

Production

Overall module production scheduling in May decreased by more than 10% compared to April, expected to be due to weakening subsequent demand.

Inventory

Overall destocking continued in May. The recent decrease in distributed orders will impact June's inventory.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Prices

Currently, the domestic prices for inner-layer sand are 60,000-70,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand are 33,000-45,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand are 18,000-24,000 yuan/mt. In the high-purity quartz sand market over the past week, prices have remained stable. Regarding imported sand, price negotiations among some downstream enterprises have largely concluded, showing an overall downward trend. It is expected that under the influence of relatively weak imported sand prices, the signal for a price decline in domestic sand will be more apparent.

Production

This week, quartz sand enterprises maintained stable operations, with new capacity expected to be commissioned in mid-year, indicating a slight upward trend in subsequent production.

Inventory

Quartz sand inventory continued to rise, and the destocking speed of imported sand traders began to decline recently.

PV Glass

Price

3.2mm single-layer coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass was 21-22 yuan/m², with prices falling.

3.2mm double-layer coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass was 22-23 yuan/m², with prices falling.

2.0mm single-layer coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass was 13-13.5 yuan/m², with prices falling.

2.0mm double-layer coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass was 14-14.5 yuan/m², with prices falling.

Production

In May, domestic glass production maintained an increasing trend, but the number of newly started production kilns began to decrease subsequently, leading to a reduced increase in long-term supply.

Inventory

This week, some module enterprises began to increase their purchase pace. With downstream enterprises entering the market, glass inventory is expected to decline slightly.